By: Nancy Lombardi

Back to School Season Stats

Even though we are all in the midst of enjoying this summer, the Back to School shopping season is getting underway. The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) released estimates for this season’s sales, which are forecasted to be up about three percent.

According to the ICSC, “The Census Bureau estimates that there are some 77 million children and adults attending school—from nursery school to college—and another 7.2 million teachers and other school personnel.”

However, the season is hard to pin down because there are varying schedules at different schools in different parts of the country. Yet it has increasingly become a barometer of how the holiday season is expected to perform.

The U.S. Department of Commerce has segmented retail sales categories that are important for back‐to‐school purchases, such as family clothing, shoes, electronics, and books. In 2010, back‐to‐school sales—based on that combination of store types—rose by five percent. However, the 2011 retail environment is a bit different from 2010. Consumer fundamentals have improved relative to the same time last year, which is clearly a positive. For example, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index in June was at 58.5, marginally stronger than in June 2010 (54.3). The unemployment rate in May 2011 was 9.1 percent, which is lower by one‐half of percentage point from its 9.6 percent reading in May 2010. Not a huge improvement, but at least it’s getting a bit better.

However, consumers this year will face higher prices for apparel goods given the rise in cotton prices. Although it is likely that higher costs will be accepted by the consumer, retailers are cautious. The other reason to expect 2011 back‐to‐school sales growth to be more moderate than in 2010 is that the 2010 experience reflected the recovery from the sharp drop in 2009.

Overall back‐to‐school sales are expected to post a moderate three percent rise to $39 billion over the three‐month period from July through September. That growth rate would be slightly below the 1995–2010 average pace of 3.6 percent.

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Top Travel Spots

Not quite ready for back to school? How about planning a trip instead? Here are the top travel destinations according to Frommer’s as voted by Frommer’s experts and well as readers:

1. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
2. Santiago, Chile
3. Puerto Viejo, Costa Rica
4. Taipei, Taiwan
5. Hokkaido, Japan
6. Ponza and the Pontine Islands, Italy
7. Kent Coast, England
8. Stockholm, Sweden
9. Doha, Qatar
10. Cesme Peninsula, Turkey
11. Atlanta, Georgia
12. Nahanni National Park, Canada

Frommer’s Reader Favorite: Ireland

On a budget? How about Lonely Planet’s Top-10 Value Destinations as recommended by the experts at Lonely Planet:

1. Bangladesh
2. Nicaragua
3. Washington D.C.
4. Paris
5. Namibia
6. Philippines
7. Argentina
8. Naples
9. Ukraine
10. Syria

Check out Chris Adams’ story on Travel and Destination licensing.

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U.S. Shopping Centers Face Slow Growth

The U.S. shopping center industry grew to approximately 108,000 centers in 2010 according to the latest statistics from CoStar Group, Inc., that were compiled on behalf of the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC). That marked the slowest U.S. industry growth (+0.2 percent or 259 centers) on record since at least 1971 for which consistent data exist. Over the first four months of 2011, 50 new centers were tallied by the CoStar Group, which continues to suggest a sluggish annualized rate of growth. Total shopping center space trends echo a similar pattern with a 0.2 percentage point gain in 2010 to 7.33 billion square feet of gross leasable area.

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